CAN ISRAEL AND IRAN EVER BE GOOD NEIGHBORS?

WASHINGTON, DC - The Middle East is defined by conflict, shifting alliances, and the ever-present possibility of transformation. Rumors about the potential establishment of an independent Kurdish state have once again brought the region’s power dynamics into sharp focus. One question stands out among these developments: Could such a change in the region’s geopolitical map push long-time adversaries Israel and Iran toward better relations?

To understand the complexities of this question, we must consider the role of the Kurdish people, the leadership of Masoud Barzani, and Israel’s historically covert but significant relationship with Kurdish movements.

A Relationship of Hostility: Israel and Iran

For over 40 years, Israel and Iran have stood on opposite sides of regional and global issues. Once allies under the Shah’s rule, their relationship turned hostile following the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Iran’s Islamic Republic has refused to recognize Israel as a legitimate state, regularly calling for its destruction. In turn, Israel views Iran as its greatest existential threat, given Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and support for groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

This animosity has been fueled by proxy conflicts, ideological differences, and clashing regional ambitions. The two nations have engaged in a war of words, intelligence operations, and military skirmishes through intermediaries for decades.

The Kurdish Question: A New Middle East in the Making?

The Kurds, one of the largest stateless nations in the world, have long been a critical yet overlooked factor in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Spanning Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey, the Kurdish population has faced systemic repression and denial of its identity. Yet, in Iraq, under the leadership of figures like Masoud Barzani, the Kurds have achieved semi-autonomous status, with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) becoming a significant political and economic player.

Rumors of a new Middle East plan—including the creation of an independent Kurdish state—have reignited debates about the region’s future. While such a state could be a game-changer, it is unlikely to come without opposition, especially from countries like Iran and Turkey, which fear it could embolden their Kurdish populations to seek autonomy.

For Israel, however, the creation of a Kurdish state could be a strategic boon. Israel has long viewed the Kurds as potential allies in a hostile region, seeing in them a shared opposition to Arab nationalism and Islamist extremism. This brings into focus the role of Masoud Barzani, the veteran Kurdish leader who has maintained covert yet significant ties with Israel.

A Hidden Relationship

Masoud Barzani, the former president of the Kurdistan Regional Government and a key figure in Kurdish politics, has long been a symbol of Kurdish aspirations for statehood. Under his leadership, Iraqi Kurdistan emerged as a relatively stable and prosperous region, especially in the years following the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

What is less openly discussed, however, is Barzani’s relationship with Israel. While Israel has never officially recognized the KRG as a state, reports and evidence of quiet cooperation between the two have persisted for decades. Israel’s support for the Kurds is strategic: it views the Kurds as a counterweight to Arab nationalism and Iranian influence.

Barzani, for his part, has reportedly sought Israeli support in the push for Kurdish independence. In 2017, during the Kurdish independence referendum, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was one of the few world leaders to openly express support for the Kurdish right to self-determination. This support, though not publicized by Barzani himself, highlighted the longstanding but discreet relationship between the two parties.

Could a Kurdish State Bridge the Israel-Iran Divide?

In theory, an independent Kurdish state could act as a buffer between Israel and Iran or even a mediator. Here’s how:
1. Shared Interests in Stability:
Both Israel and Iran might benefit from a stable Kurdish state. Israel sees the Kurds as allies, while Iran—despite its opposition—could eventually seek economic ties with a Kurdish state to avoid complete isolation.
2. Regional Realignment:
The creation of a Kurdish state could force both nations to reassess their alliances and priorities, especially if Kurdish independence leads to greater U.S. or Western involvement in the region.
3. Economic Opportunities:
An independent Kurdistan, rich in oil and other resources, could become an economic hub that might indirectly benefit both Israel and Iran, encouraging limited cooperation.

Challenges to Reconciliation

Despite these potential benefits, the obstacles to Israel and Iran becoming good neighbors remain significant:
1. Deep Ideological Divide:
Iran’s anti-Israel stance is not merely political; it is rooted in the very fabric of its Islamic Republic. For Iran to soften its position on Israel would require a seismic shift in its leadership or ideology.
2. Proxy Wars and Conflicts:
Iran’s support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas ensures ongoing hostility with Israel. Likewise, Israel’s covert operations against Iranian interests deepen the mistrust.
3. Opposition to Kurdish Independence:
While Israel might celebrate a Kurdish state, Iran would likely see it as a direct threat to its sovereignty and regional influence, especially given its own Kurdish population’s aspirations for autonomy.

A New Middle East?

The idea of Israel and Iran setting aside their differences and becoming good neighbors might seem far-fetched, but the Middle East is a region where the improbable often becomes reality. The emergence of a Kurdish state could be a game-changer, forcing regional powers to adapt to new realities.

However, it is equally possible that a Kurdish state could exacerbate tensions rather than resolve them. For Iran, Kurdish independence represents a red line. For Israel, it is an opportunity. For Masoud Barzani and the Kurdish people, it is a dream that has long been deferred but never abandoned.

As the region continues to evolve, one thing is clear: the Kurdish question will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of the Middle East. Whether it leads to peace, new alliances, or further division will depend on the willingness of regional powers to embrace diplomacy over conflict. For now, Israel and Iran remain far from the possibility of becoming good neighbors, but in a region as unpredictable as this one, the door to change is never entirely closed.